Update: Comparing Violent Death Rates in Ukraine and the USA

​As I get ready to return to Ukraine for the Beyond Bucha Production Tour, I’m revisiting a post from Thanksgiving 2022: On this Thanksgiving Weekend Ukraine and USA Share Two More Things: Thankfulness and Violent Death Rates.

Back in the fall of 2022, I conducted a quick analysis to reassure my mom that traveling to Ukraine wasn't as dangerous as it seemed. I suspected that, given the lower rate of gun violence in Ukraine compared to the USA and the relatively few casualties from missile or drone strikes, the risks might be closer than they appeared. It turns out, the statistics were even more comparable than I anticipated. In fact, it might even be safer in Ukraine given all the shootings here.

Here’s the reality:

• In the USA, there were 39,244 gun-related murders in 2022 and 2023 combined, according to the Gun Violence Archive. With a population of approximately 333 million, this results in a rate of 0.012%.
• In Ukraine, from February 2022 to September 2023, about 3,263 civilians were killed in cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, and Odesa—areas off the front lines. With a current population of around 38 million, this translates to a rate of 0.09% (source: OHCHR).

Of course, these figures exclude casualties from frontline zones, where the rates are significantly higher. For instance, during the Bucha Massacre, there were 419 deaths out of a population of 36,971, which represents 1.1%. But as compared to Bucha’s current suburban state, the chances are likely higher of a violent death in many of the cities and suburbs we live in here in America.

While comparing these risks might be like comparing a bloody apple to a bloody orange, the danger remains real in both contexts. Parents in both countries live with the fear that they might never see their children again when they leave the house. Both have their own Code Reds. The main difference is that one mother fears a mass shooting, while the other worries about missile and drone strikes.

One silver lining in both situations is that the probability of being a victim of such violence is low if you avoid the most dangerous areas.

​So, in answer to those that wonder if I’m worried or scared to go back to Ukraine the answer is: "Not much".